When the time comes, “You knew, what did you do?” will be the only question that matters. It’s the question that keeps me awake at night and the one that drives me out of bed in the morning. Why? Because every time I look into my grandson’s eyes, I know this is the question he’ll one day ask of us all.
Today, I want to address the first half: you knew. What do we really know? And what does the latest data tell us about the urgency of our situation? Here are three essential sources of information that lay bare the scale of the climate crisis, its impact on our children, and the urgent need to act.
Scientific Evidence of Accelerating Climate Change
The recent study published in Oxford Open Climate Change, led by Dr. James E. Hansen and a team of experts, paints a stark picture of accelerating global warming. This isn’t just a projection for the distant future; it’s happening now, and the window for effective action is shrinking.
The United Nations has warned that the world is “on the verge of a climate abyss,” following findings from a Guardian survey indicating that hundreds of top climate scientists believe we’ll surpass the 1.5°C limit outlined in the Paris Agreement. Many experts suggest we may have already crossed this threshold. According to this survey, scientists express deep concerns that:
“We could exceed the 1.5°C target within a few years, with the current trajectory suggesting irreversible consequences unless urgent action is taken.”
Dr. Hansen’s research reinforces this urgency, noting that “global temperatures have already risen by approximately 1.2°C since the pre-industrial era,” and if trends continue, “there is a 50% chance of surpassing 1.5°C within the next decade.” This threshold marks the point beyond which scientists expect even more extreme weather patterns, increasing droughts, and rising sea levels, all with devastating impacts on both ecosystems and human communities.
The UN and climate scientists warn that crossing the 1.5°C threshold could happen within the next few years if drastic action isn’t taken immediately.
Scientific Evidence of Accelerating Climate Change
The recent Oxford Open Climate Change study , Global Warming in the Pipeline, led by Dr. James E. Hansen and his team, provides an detailed look into the hard physics behind climate acceleration.
According to this landmark research, “global temperatures have risen by approximately 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with the rate of warming increasing sharply in the past two decades.”This steady rise is largely driven by the greenhouse effect, primarily from carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, which have been trapping more heat in the Earth’s atmosphere.
Key Findings:
CO₂ Levels and Temperature Correlation: The study highlights that atmospheric CO₂ levels have surged from a pre-industrial baseline of 280 parts per million (ppm) to over 420 ppm today, an increase that directly correlates with rising temperatures. “This increase has magnified the planet’s natural greenhouse effect, resulting in higher global temperatures and extreme weather events,” the report states.
Projected Warming Trajectory: The study models scenarios where, without drastic emissions reductions, temperatures could reach up to 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the year 2050, a threshold that would push numerous ecosystems to their limits.
This finding aligns with projections by the IPCC, which warns that exceeding 1.5°C could be catastrophic, triggering severe droughts, mass extinctions, and a potential “point of no return” in certain environmental systems.
Positive Feedback Loops: Hansen and his team emphasize the threat of positive feedback loops, or processes that amplify warming effects. For example, “as Arctic ice melts, less sunlight is reflected by the Earth’s surface, increasing absorption of heat and further accelerating ice loss.” Similarly, warming permafrost regions release methane, a greenhouse gas over 25 times more potent than CO₂, creating a dangerous cycle of continuous warming.
Oceanic Changes and Sea-Level Rise: The report also underscores the impact on oceans, which have absorbed over 90% of the excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions. This absorption has led to thermal expansion and accelerated glacial melt, resulting in sea-level rise. Dr. Hansen notes, “At the current rate, sea levels are projected to rise between 0.6 and 1.1 meters by the end of the century, putting coastal communities and ecosystems at severe risk.”
The United Nations has recently warned that “We are teetering on a planetary tightrope.”following findings from a Guardian survey indicating that hundreds of top climate scientists believe we’ll surpass the 1.5°C limit outlined in the Paris Agreement. Many experts suggest we may have already crossed this threshold. According to this survey, scientists express deep concerns that “we could exceed the 1.5°C target within a few years, with the current trajectory suggesting irreversible consequences unless urgent action is taken.”
The Hidden Impact on Our Children and Future Generations
For those who focus on the well-being of future generations, The Air They Breathe by Dr. Debra Hendrickson provides an urgent reminder of how today’s choices impact children’s health. This is more than a crisis of melting ice caps; it’s one that’s already affecting young lives.
According to Hendrickson’s research, “Climate change is already responsible for an estimated 150,000 additional childhood deaths each year, primarily due to malnutrition, disease, and extreme weather events.” The increase in pollutants also means that “children today are breathing air containing up to 40% more CO₂ than a century ago.” As a result, we’re seeing higher rates of respiratory illnesses in children globally.
She adds that climate change’s psychological impacts on children are profound, noting that eco-anxiety is a rising issue among young people. “The mental health impacts of climate change on today’s youth are both substantial and poorly addressed,” she explains, underscoring how climate inaction is undermining not only children’s physical health but their hope for the future.
Climate change is already causing 150,000 additional childhood deaths annually due to impacts like malnutrition and disease.
Climate Insights for the TL;DR Brigade
If you prefer a compelling overview, Yellow Dot Studios created a video, A Tale of Fire and Ice, that distills the urgency of climate change into just a few minutes. It’s hard-hitting, visually engaging, and an undeniable call to action.
The video succinctly states: “We’ve entered a period where every fraction of a degree counts—there’s no more ‘what if,’ only ‘what now.’” It emphasizes that climate change is not a problem for tomorrow; it’s a crisis today. One striking fact: “Over half of the global population already experiences at least one month per year of dangerously high temperatures,” a number expected to increase if we fail to act.
Even for the most skeptical among us, the video drives home that waiting for more data or more time is no longer an option. We’re in it now, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Over 50% of the global population currently experiences at least one month per year of dangerously high temperatures—a number set to rise with unchecked warming.
Looking Forward: What Will You Do?
So now we know. The facts are clear, the data is in, and the consequences are undeniable. But knowing alone isn’t enough. You knew—what did you do? This is the question we all need to answer.
In next week’s blog, I’ll explore what “doing” looks like. I encourage each of you to take stock of your impact, your business practices, and your choices. How will you answer when asked, “What did you do?” because of what you knew?
And if you’re not sure where to start, talk to us. We’re here to be your catalyst for courageous action. Because knowing without doing is no longer an option.